Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OH 5274 at 07:44 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–30%.

Safest bet that day OH 5274 DCA 07:44 → MSY 09:39 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1514 DCA 19:00 → MSY 20:50 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5274 PSA	DCA 07:44	MSY 09:39	10%	4%	1.4%	no record
WN 1513 Southwest	DCA 11:35	MSY 13:24	13%	4%	1.6%	no record
AA 2586 American	DCA 11:30	MSY 13:22	14%	5%	1.9%	no record
AA 1788 American Flight history →	DCA 15:06	MSY 17:00	27%	8%	2.3%	64%
WN 1514 Southwest	DCA 19:00	MSY 20:50	30%	12%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON