tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4428 at 09:56 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4428 Republic DCA 09:56 MYR 11:57 6% 4% 1.0% no record
YX 4434 Republic DCA 17:09 MYR 19:10 18% 10% 2.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:23 → CLT 07:53AA 1521 3h 27m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 6h 13m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 16m Detroit DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145 4h 39m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:30 → MYR 10:47DL 3047 4h 47m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182 5h 00m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → DCA 07:00 → BOS 08:39DL 5698 · flown by Republic 46m Boston BOS 09:25 → MYR 11:42DL 3087 4h 42m 91% 76%
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:38 → ORD 08:45UA 441 3h 08m Chicago ORD 11:53 → MYR 15:03UA 623 7h 25m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093 6h 40m 97% 67%
UnitedDetails → DCA 11:00 → EWR 12:22UA 4508 · flown by GoJet 3h 33m Newark EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic 7h 03m 96% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 19:36 → ATL 21:35DL 1007 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074 4h 19m 71% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON