Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:45, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820	2h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	9h 05m	95%	80%
Alaska Details →	DCA 10:59 → SAN 13:20AS 15	3h 35m San Diego	SAN 16:55 → OAK 18:33AS 2190 · flown by Horizon	10h 34m	100%	46%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DCA 17:00 → SEA 19:59AS 3	48m Seattle	SEA 20:47 → OAK 22:56AS 706	8h 56m	54%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON