tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2475 American DCA 14:34 OKC 16:56 21% 6% 0.9% no record
WN 1585 Southwest DCA 13:30 OKC 15:43 21% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:14DL 2020 7h 14m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 3h 54m Houston IAH 14:35 → OKC 16:15UA 6189 · flown by Mesa 8h 55m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 33m Houston IAH 09:46 → OKC 11:22UA 4344 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 22m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:23 → CLT 07:53AA 1521 3h 22m Charlotte CLT 11:15 → OKC 12:56AA 1626 7h 33m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:26AA 2007 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:36 → OKC 11:49AA 3099 7h 49m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862 7h 06m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → DCA 13:59 → LGA 15:31AA 4730 · flown by Republic 3h 28m New York LGA 18:59 → OKC 22:05AA 4526 · flown by Republic 9h 06m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:59 → DFW 10:31AA 1978 3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:34 → OKC 14:46AA 2929 7h 47m 99% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 59m Atlanta ATL 19:05 → OKC 20:15DL 2784 5h 15m 72% 53%
AmericanDetails → DCA 10:17 → ORD 11:25AA 2023 52m Chicago ORD 12:17 → OKC 14:34AA 6337 · flown by SkyWest 5h 17m 70% 46%
UnitedDetails → DCA 18:10 → ORD 19:32UA 2148 1h 03m Chicago ORD 20:35 → OKC 22:47UA 1440 5h 37m 51% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON