Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5608 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5608 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:15	OMA 10:13	8%	2%	0.7%	87%
WN 3236 Southwest	DCA 16:01	OMA 17:51	29%	7%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → OMA 09:48DL 4055 · flown by SkyWest	4h 48m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:46DL 1125	7h 46m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:30 → MSP 08:12DL 1193	2h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 10:39 → OMA 11:57DL 3838 · flown by SkyWest	6h 27m	99%	85%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	3h 46m Houston	IAH 11:59 → OMA 14:25UA 1936	9h 25m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:23 → DTW 14:00DL 2476	2h 00m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest	5h 47m	95%	79%
United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	54m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → OMA 10:27UA 1778	4h 57m	91%	77%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:39 → DTW 11:09DL 1558	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → OMA 13:22DL 3762 · flown by SkyWest	4h 43m	88%	77%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364	6h 21m	95%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 19:36 → ATL 21:35DL 1007	53m Atlanta	ATL 22:28 → OMA 23:49DL 2010	5h 13m	57%	41%
United Details →	DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193	1h 08m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → OMA 23:18UA 2336	5h 08m	62%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON