tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 28% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:26AA 2007 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:28 → ONT 09:41AA 1820 7h 41m 95% 74%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:00 → DFW 09:26AA 1839 2h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:14 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 9h 32m 99% 71%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 17:16 → PDX 20:04AS 9 1h 30m Portland PDX 21:34 → ONT 00:05 +1AS 534 9h 49m 89% 71%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820 2h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 9h 03m 96% 70%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:49 → PHX 09:39AA 2006 1h 01m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → ONT 12:06AA 2661 7h 17m 88% 69%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 03m 97% 63%
FrontierDetails → DCA 18:00 → DEN 20:07F9 689 2h 22m Denver DEN 22:29 → ONT 23:50F9 1261 8h 50m 91% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 19:08 → DFW 21:34AA 1158 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:39 → ONT 23:55AA 1695 7h 47m 73% 40%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:13 → DEN 18:25UA 746 55m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 7h 29m 58% 31%
UnitedDetails → DCA 18:10 → ORD 19:32UA 2148 46m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 7h 41m 28% 13%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON