Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 25 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1793 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–55%.

Safest bet that day UA 1793 DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3148 DCA 18:18 → ORD 19:28 · 55% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1793 United Flight history →	DCA 06:30	ORD 07:46	6%	3%	1.1%	92%
AA 523 American Flight history →	DCA 06:27	ORD 07:35	10%	5%	1.9%	78%
UA 441 United Flight history →	DCA 07:38	ORD 08:45	11%	4%	1.1%	86%
UA 1061 United Flight history →	DCA 08:25	ORD 09:44	11%	5%	1.1%	93%
UA 2774 United Flight history →	DCA 09:30	ORD 10:50	13%	6%	1.4%	94%
AA 2633 American Flight history →	DCA 07:42	ORD 08:50	16%	6%	1.4%	87%
AA 522 American	DCA 08:40	ORD 09:48	17%	7%	1.5%	no record
UA 351 United Flight history →	DCA 09:27	ORD 10:34	18%	7%	1.1%	88%
AA 2023 American Flight history →	DCA 10:17	ORD 11:25	20%	8%	1.7%	81%
AA 808 American Flight history →	DCA 11:28	ORD 12:36	22%	10%	2.1%	90%worse than usual
UA 2803 United	DCA 12:00	ORD 13:11	23%	10%	1.3%	no record
YX 4541 Republic	DCA 22:28	ORD 23:37	28%	13%	3.7%	no record
UA 511 United Flight history →	DCA 13:00	ORD 14:18	30%	13%	2.3%	76%
UA 1888 United Flight history →	DCA 14:00	ORD 15:18	31%	15%	2.2%	71%
AA 2284 American	DCA 13:39	ORD 14:48	34%	18%	2.5%	no record
AA 1637 American Flight history →	DCA 16:10	ORD 17:32	38%	23%	2.7%	74%worse than usual
UA 1325 United Flight history →	DCA 15:30	ORD 16:52	41%	19%	2.4%	66%
AA 1221 American	DCA 15:05	ORD 16:19	43%	23%	4.0%	no record
UA 1193 United Flight history →	DCA 19:10	ORD 20:32	48%	23%	1.8%	58%
AA 488 American	DCA 20:25	ORD 21:36	49%	28%	2.2%	no record
UA 654 United Flight history →	DCA 17:05	ORD 18:30	50%	24%	1.8%	50%
UA 2218 United Flight history →	DCA 20:06	ORD 21:15	52%	25%	1.7%	63%worse than usual
AA 1189 American Flight history →	DCA 16:59	ORD 18:08	52%	26%	3.2%	61%worse than usual
UA 2148 United Flight history →	DCA 18:10	ORD 19:32	53%	24%	1.9%	51%
AA 3148 American	DCA 18:18	ORD 19:28	55%	29%	3.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON