tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 9 Alaska Flight history → DCA 17:16 PDX 20:04 24% 8% 1.0% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:30 → MSP 08:12DL 1193 2h 47m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661 9h 10m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 25m Detroit DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171 7h 36m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25DL 5802 · flown by Republic 1h 05m New York JFK 08:30 → PDX 11:36DL 1574 8h 34m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 9h 58m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958 2h 17m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 8h 35m 97% 81%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 17:00 → SEA 19:59AS 3 3h 27m Seattle SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon 10h 22m 98% 80%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 09:59 → LAX 12:27AS 5 2h 00m Los Angeles LAX 14:27 → PDX 16:47AS 1315 9h 48m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56UA 740 8h 56m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:59 → MSP 20:52DL 2963 46m Minneapolis MSP 21:38 → PDX 23:18DL 2391 7h 19m 69% 55%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454 49m Detroit DTW 20:04 → PDX 21:48DL 913 7h 19m 57% 43%
UnitedDetails → DCA 14:00 → ORD 15:18UA 1888 57m Chicago ORD 16:15 → PDX 18:47UA 1677 7h 47m 66% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON