tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4801 at 17:32 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4801 Republic DCA 17:32 PHL 18:56 18% 7% 1.2% no record
OH 5304 PSA DCA 14:34 PHL 15:40 29% 12% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 07:00 → BOS 08:39DL 5698 · flown by Republic 3h 38m Boston BOS 12:17 → PHL 14:01DL 5805 · flown by Republic 7h 01m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 2h 41m Detroit DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331 5h 46m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270 4h 57m 95% 85%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:30 → MCO 08:55AA 592 1h 52m Orlando MCO 10:47 → PHL 13:31AA 629 7h 01m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 18m Chicago ORD 09:04 → PHL 12:16UA 729 5h 46m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:29 → CMH 09:03AA 4627 · flown by Republic 1h 37m Columbus CMH 10:40 → PHL 12:15AA 5640 · flown by PSA 4h 46m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → MIA 07:44AA 2344 1h 31m Miami MIA 09:15 → PHL 12:10AA 551 7h 10m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:23 → CLT 07:53AA 1521 1h 33m Charlotte CLT 09:26 → PHL 11:15AA 2565 4h 52m 97% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 11:28 → ORD 12:36AA 808 49m Chicago ORD 13:25 → PHL 16:52AA 830 5h 24m 66% 40%
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:30 → ORD 16:52UA 1325 1h 07m Chicago ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776 5h 49m 64% 29%
AmericanDetails → DCA 16:59 → ORD 18:08AA 1189 55m Chicago ORD 19:03 → PHL 22:08AA 1848 5h 09m 40% 15%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON