Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4829 at 10:43 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4829 DCA 10:43 → PVD 12:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 497 DCA 18:40 → PVD 20:09 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4829 Southwest	DCA 10:43	PVD 12:10	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 5619 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:59	PVD 11:33	10%	4%	1.2%	88%
AA 2641 American	DCA 12:54	PVD 14:26	10%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 2552 American	DCA 22:31	PVD 00:06	17%	6%	1.2%	no record
OH 5173 PSA	DCA 15:14	PVD 16:55	20%	9%	1.9%	no record
AA 5438 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 18:48	PVD 20:32	23%	11%	3.3%	59%
WN 497 Southwest	DCA 18:40	PVD 20:09	25%	7%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON