Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 4232 at 08:53 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–39%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4232 DCA 08:53 → RDU 10:16 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2083 DCA 22:30 → RDU 23:47 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 4232 Envoy	DCA 08:53	RDU 10:16	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
MQ 4053 Envoy	DCA 13:51	RDU 15:08	21%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 5626 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 12:00	RDU 13:22	23%	9%	1.4%	76%
AA 5404 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:36	RDU 18:07	33%	16%	3.7%	57%
AA 4029 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 20:09	RDU 21:27	36%	14%	3.1%	55%
AA 2083 American Flight history →	DCA 22:30	RDU 23:47	39%	16%	1.7%	57%
DL 5269 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 07:59	RDU 09:09	14%	6%	1.4%	86%
DL 5322 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 17:47	RDU 19:21	37%	14%	2.5%	63%
DL 5428 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 22:05	RDU 23:19	40%	16%	7.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON