Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 2916 at 08:17, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2916 American Flight history →	DCA 08:17	RSW 11:08	13%	5%	2.3%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 08:36 → RSW 11:36DL 2001	5h 36m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:39 → DTW 11:09DL 1558	3h 19m Detroit	DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225	7h 43m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:30 → MSP 08:12DL 1193	53m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400	6h 57m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153	6h 11m	98%	79%
United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 08:57 → RSW 12:56UA 1036	6h 26m	97%	77%
United Details →	DCA 08:30 → EWR 09:52UA 4430 · flown by GoJet	2h 04m Newark	EWR 11:56 → RSW 15:05UA 1810	6h 35m	96%	77%
American Details →	DCA 06:23 → CLT 07:53AA 1521	3h 04m Charlotte	CLT 10:57 → RSW 13:02AA 2018	6h 39m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379	6h 28m	99%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 19:36 → ATL 21:35DL 1007	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217	4h 47m	71%	51%
American Details →	DCA 10:17 → ORD 11:25AA 2023	47m Chicago	ORD 12:12 → RSW 16:13AA 2561	5h 56m	60%	39%
American Details →	DCA 16:59 → ORD 18:08AA 1189	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 19:29 → RSW 23:29AA 3238	6h 30m	68%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON