tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 15 Alaska Flight history → DCA 10:59 SAN 13:20 23% 4% 0.9% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25DL 5802 · flown by Republic 1h 30m New York JFK 08:55 → SAN 11:55DL 683 8h 53m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:30 → MSP 08:12DL 1193 3h 26m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 9h 54m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 16m Detroit DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492 7h 27m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:36DL 843 8h 36m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 00m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 7h 51m 94% 74%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:39 → DTW 11:09DL 1558 2h 41m Detroit DTW 13:50 → SAN 15:33DL 761 8h 54m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:37 → SAN 17:12DL 924 9h 56m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 3h 47m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 10h 21m 99% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 53m Atlanta ATL 21:28 → SAN 22:57DL 896 7h 27m 61% 39%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:13 → DEN 18:25UA 746 55m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 7h 33m 58% 34%
AmericanDetails → DCA 16:59 → ORD 18:08AA 1189 1h 00m Chicago ORD 19:08 → SAN 21:49AA 1861 7h 50m 48% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON