tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 1947 at 18:32, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1947 American Flight history → DCA 18:32 SAT 21:13 34% 12% 1.0% 57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25DL 5802 · flown by Republic 1h 05m New York JFK 08:30 → SAT 11:42DL 1166 6h 40m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:30 → MSP 08:12DL 1193 48m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 6h 19m 90% 80%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 56m Detroit DTW 08:25 → SAT 10:34DL 788 5h 34m 94% 80%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 39m Chicago ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29UA 490 6h 59m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 6h 38m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:17 → EWR 09:31UA 4430 · flown by GoJet 2h 32m Newark EWR 12:03 → SAT 15:04UA 515 7h 47m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 7h 10m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → DCA 10:58 → IAH 13:19UA 2190 1h 33m Houston IAH 14:52 → SAT 16:12UA 2030 6h 14m 95% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454 1h 00m Detroit DTW 20:15 → SAT 22:22DL 1365 5h 53m 68% 44%
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:11 → DFW 19:41AA 1414 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:48 → SAT 22:00AA 1406 5h 49m 70% 36%
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:05 → ORD 18:30UA 654 1h 28m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57UA 1394 6h 52m 74% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON