Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5260 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 5260 DCA 07:55 → SAV 09:51 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 5384 DCA 20:01 → SAV 21:57 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5260 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 07:55	SAV 09:51	12%	4%	1.3%	88%
OH 5241 PSA	DCA 12:40	SAV 14:37	20%	7%	1.5%	no record
AA 5384 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:01	SAV 21:57	38%	18%	2.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON