Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4802 at 08:38 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day YX 4802 DCA 08:38 → SDF 10:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5602 DCA 15:38 → SDF 17:41 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4802 Republic	DCA 08:38	SDF 10:36	8%	2%	1.1%	no record
AA 4672 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:45	SDF 21:40	19%	10%	2.3%	72%
AA 5602 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:38	SDF 17:41	27%	8%	1.9%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON