Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 369 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 369 DCA 07:55 → SFO 10:50 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 7 DCA 18:59 → SFO 21:56 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 369 United Flight history →	DCA 07:55	SFO 10:50	13%	4%	0.7%	88%
UA 2166 United	DCA 18:05	SFO 21:12	29%	11%	0.8%	no record
AS 7 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 18:59	SFO 21:56	34%	12%	0.9%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 06:30 → MSP 08:12DL 1193	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 02m	96%	75%
American Details →	DCA 06:23 → CLT 07:53AA 1521	1h 40m Charlotte	CLT 09:33 → SFO 12:08AA 2428	8h 45m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → SFO 10:27DL 361	7h 27m	95%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON