tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:30 → MSP 08:12DL 1193 1h 53m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 8h 31m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:26AA 2007 1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:09 → SJC 11:06AA 2046 9h 06m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 25m Chicago ORD 09:11 → SJC 11:44UA 307 8h 14m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 9h 25m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:00 → DFW 09:26AA 1839 2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:55 → SJC 13:52AA 2834 9h 52m 99% 72%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 08:00 → SEA 10:58AS 1 2h 42m Seattle SEA 13:40 → SJC 15:51AS 521 10h 51m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 9h 49m 94% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:35 → SEA 19:41DL 786 49m Seattle SEA 20:30 → SJC 22:48DL 3956 · flown by SkyWest 9h 13m 64% 50%
AmericanDetails → DCA 18:01 → PHX 19:50AA 3191 53m Phoenix PHX 20:43 → SJC 22:52AA 1537 7h 51m 66% 42%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 17:00 → SEA 19:59AS 3 49m Seattle SEA 20:48 → SJC 23:01AS 403 9h 01m 55% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON