Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 820 Delta Flight history →	DCA 17:45	SLC 20:41	29%	10%	1.4%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 08:15 → OMA 10:13DL 5608 · flown by Republic	2h 26m Omaha	OMA 12:39 → SLC 14:24DL 3815 · flown by SkyWest	8h 09m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	8h 10m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	56m Detroit	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	6h 21m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 07:00 → BOS 08:39DL 5698 · flown by Republic	2h 36m Boston	BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:20DL 464	9h 20m	99%	80%
United Details →	DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697	3h 44m Houston	IAH 14:25 → SLC 16:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa	10h 20m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:08 → BNA 11:13DL 5708 · flown by Republic	2h 48m Nashville	BNA 14:01 → SLC 16:37DL 1593	8h 29m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	DCA 07:00 → MCO 09:22DL 1003	1h 23m Orlando	MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031	8h 21m	96%	78%
American Details →	DCA 06:23 → CLT 07:53AA 1521	1h 39m Charlotte	CLT 09:32 → SLC 11:53AA 1895	7h 30m	98%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 19:36 → ATL 21:35DL 1007	50m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	6h 50m	51%	33%
Alaska Details →	DCA 17:00 → SEA 19:59AS 3	46m Seattle	SEA 20:45 → SLC 23:48AS 669	8h 48m	51%	30%
United Details →	DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193	59m Chicago	ORD 21:31 → SLC 23:50UA 1710	6h 40m	50%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON