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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:30 → MSP 08:12DL 1193 2h 48m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 9h 24m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 56m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 05m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 7h 59m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 1h 52m Houston IAH 12:33 → SNA 14:20UA 1533 9h 00m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:26AA 2007 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:27 → SNA 09:43AA 2114 7h 43m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 74%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 08:00 → SEA 10:58AS 1 2h 48m Seattle SEA 13:46 → SNA 16:38AS 773 11h 38m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:55 → SFO 10:50UA 369 1h 41m San Francisco SFO 12:31 → SNA 14:20UA 2441 9h 25m 98% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 14:00 → ORD 15:18UA 1888 1h 02m Chicago ORD 16:20 → SNA 18:58UA 1317 7h 58m 71% 36%
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:05 → ORD 18:30UA 654 1h 15m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 8h 14m 66% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON