tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 2584 at 08:56, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2584 American Flight history → DCA 08:56 SRQ 11:54 16% 7% 1.9% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 44m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 13:43 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115 7h 22m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → SRQ 17:13DL 3109 6h 57m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:23 → CLT 07:53AA 1521 1h 23m Charlotte CLT 09:16 → SRQ 11:10AA 1452 4h 47m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 3h 24m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 8h 42m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 6h 15m 90% 71%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 6h 52m 95% 71%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:19 → CLT 16:49AA 2040 2h 18m Charlotte CLT 19:07 → SRQ 21:02AA 2604 5h 43m 94% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON