Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1519 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 1519 DCA 08:00 → STL 09:24 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest WN 1143 DCA 20:16 → STL 21:42 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1519 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 08:00	STL 09:24	9%	2%	0.7%	78%
YX 4436 Republic	DCA 08:55	STL 10:36	10%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 3700 Southwest	DCA 12:36	STL 14:00	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1522 Southwest	DCA 14:56	STL 16:20	24%	5%	0.7%	no record
YX 4680 Republic	DCA 20:14	STL 21:45	27%	9%	2.0%	no record
AA 3066 American	DCA 15:05	STL 16:45	28%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 1143 Southwest	DCA 20:16	STL 21:42	34%	10%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON