Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OH 5170 at 10:17 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day OH 5170 DCA 10:17 → SYR 11:44 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5456 DCA 22:39 → SYR 00:06 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5170 PSA	DCA 10:17	SYR 11:44	15%	6%	1.1%	no record
YX 4555 Republic	DCA 15:53	SYR 17:33	17%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 5456 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:39	SYR 00:06	26%	12%	2.2%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON