tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OH 5497 at 13:54, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OH 5497 PSA DCA 13:54 TUL 16:00 23% 9% 1.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DCA 10:58 → IAH 13:19UA 2190 3h 11m Houston IAH 16:30 → TUL 18:08UA 6171 · flown by Mesa 8h 10m 99% 98%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 56m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:23 → CLT 07:53AA 1521 3h 32m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → TUL 13:01AA 2657 7h 38m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 3h 54m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 55m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 6h 37m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 59m Chicago ORD 08:45 → TUL 11:03UA 5795 · flown by SkyWest 5h 33m 93% 78%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:59 → IAH 19:25UA 1785 2h 17m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 7h 16m 92% 77%
AmericanDetails → DCA 13:59 → LGA 15:31AA 4730 · flown by Republic 3h 58m New York LGA 19:29 → TUL 22:08AA 4341 · flown by Republic 9h 09m 97% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → TUL 19:53AA 3715 · flown by Envoy 5h 40m 70% 51%
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:11 → DFW 19:41AA 1414 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:49 → TUL 22:11AA 2014 6h 00m 70% 37%
UnitedDetails → DCA 18:10 → ORD 19:32UA 2148 53m Chicago ORD 20:25 → TUL 22:17UA 2351 5h 07m 38% 18%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON