Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, YX 4400 at 10:58, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 4400 Republic	DCA 10:58	TVC 13:06	11%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:30 → MSP 08:12DL 1193	2h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 24m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454	3h 44m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	6h 39m	97%	73%
American Details →	DCA 07:42 → ORD 08:50AA 2633	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 12:18 → TVC 14:39AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	6h 57m	100%	69%
United Details →	DCA 17:05 → ORD 18:30UA 654	2h 56m Chicago	ORD 21:26 → TVC 23:37UA 2071	6h 32m	90%	35%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 10:17 → ORD 11:25AA 2023	53m Chicago	ORD 12:18 → TVC 14:39AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	4h 22m	71%	49%
United Details →	DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193	54m Chicago	ORD 21:26 → TVC 23:37UA 2071	4h 27m	38%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON