Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OH 5109 at 08:57 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Safest bet that day OH 5109 DCA 08:57 → TYS 10:49 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5484 DCA 19:46 → TYS 21:33 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5109 PSA	DCA 08:57	TYS 10:49	17%	5%	1.0%	no record
OH 5224 PSA	DCA 15:54	TYS 17:40	30%	13%	1.3%	no record
AA 5484 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:46	TYS 21:33	30%	17%	1.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON