tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, MQ 4110 at 10:25, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 4110 Envoy DCA 10:25 VPS 11:56 16% 4% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048 5h 29m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832 7h 00m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:00DL 2170 6h 44m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:26AA 2007 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460 7h 28m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 5h 59m 91% 73%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882 5h 49m 92% 72%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:00 → DFW 09:26AA 1839 3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501 8h 43m 99% 67%
AmericanDetails → DCA 12:02 → DFW 14:26AA 1623 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673 7h 36m 98% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON