Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 3452 at 19:57, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3452 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 19:57	XNA 21:51	24%	9%	3.1%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697	3h 51m Houston	IAH 14:32 → XNA 16:15UA 4062 · flown by Mesa	8h 55m	99%	84%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	1h 22m Houston	IAH 09:35 → XNA 11:12UA 4297 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 12m	97%	83%
American Details →	DCA 07:00 → DFW 09:26AA 1839	3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:35 → XNA 13:57AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	7h 57m	99%	82%
American Details →	DCA 06:23 → CLT 07:53AA 1521	1h 31m Charlotte	CLT 09:24 → XNA 10:55AA 5327 · flown by PSA	5h 32m	97%	81%
American Details →	DCA 13:59 → LGA 15:31AA 4730 · flown by Republic	2h 55m New York	LGA 18:26 → XNA 21:20AA 4554 · flown by Republic	8h 21m	96%	78%
American Details →	DCA 07:42 → ORD 08:50AA 2633	2h 51m Chicago	ORD 11:41 → XNA 13:33AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	6h 51m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 15:45 → XNA 16:41DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	7h 25m	100%	76%
American Details →	DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624	3h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:20 → XNA 22:45AA 4101 · flown by Envoy	8h 32m	98%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DCA 16:59 → IAH 19:25UA 1785	47m Houston	IAH 20:12 → XNA 21:55UA 6308 · flown by Mesa	5h 56m	71%	55%
American Details →	DCA 19:08 → DFW 21:34AA 1158	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:30 → XNA 23:47AA 3693 · flown by Envoy	5h 39m	70%	53%
American Details →	DCA 16:59 → ORD 18:08AA 1189	52m Chicago	ORD 19:00 → XNA 20:53AA 3578 · flown by Envoy	4h 54m	36%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON