Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 459 at 08:32 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–46%.

Safest bet that day WN 459 DEN 08:32 → ABQ 09:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1777 DEN 18:17 → ABQ 19:43 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 459 Southwest	DEN 08:32	ABQ 09:59	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1733 United	DEN 08:12	ABQ 09:38	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 5037 Southwest	DEN 09:40	ABQ 11:05	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 476 United	DEN 11:12	ABQ 12:38	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1530 Southwest	DEN 23:25	ABQ 00:51	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2824 Southwest	DEN 11:55	ABQ 13:20	22%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 5880 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:47	ABQ 23:32	27%	11%	0.8%	84%worse than usual
UA 1594 United	DEN 13:47	ABQ 15:19	27%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 4728 SkyWest	DEN 15:48	ABQ 17:17	31%	14%	0.6%	no record
UA 484 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	ABQ 20:44	46%	15%	0.7%	73%worse than usual
WN 1777 Southwest	DEN 18:17	ABQ 19:43	46%	15%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON