tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 501 at 11:23, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 501 SkyWest DEN 11:23 ACV 13:17 18% 10% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Arcata/Eureka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Arcata/Eureka is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:32 → LAX 07:03UA 1093 3h 32m Los Angeles LAX 10:35 → ACV 12:29UA 2628 7h 57m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 3h 34m San Francisco SFO 18:43 → ACV 20:01UA 2022 7h 36m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 2h 41m San Francisco SFO 14:06 → ACV 15:41UA 4715 · flown by SkyWest 6h 58m 99% 69%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 3h 22m San Francisco SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42UA 4708 · flown by SkyWest 7h 27m 99% 68%
UnitedDetails → DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 2h 55m San Francisco SFO 22:35 → ACV 23:59UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest 7h 05m 90% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 19:25 → SFO 21:11UA 1389 1h 24m San Francisco SFO 22:35 → ACV 23:59UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest 5h 34m 66% 49%
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391 57m San Francisco SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42UA 4708 · flown by SkyWest 5h 02m 71% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON