Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5233 at 14:10 is the safest bet, 29% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 42%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5233 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 14:10	AMA 16:41	29%	10%	0.8%	83%worse than usual
UA 5494 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:20	AMA 21:50	42%	14%	1.3%	70%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Amarillo is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DEN 05:55 → DAL 08:56WN 1388	55m Dallas	DAL 09:51 → AMA 11:13WN 452	4h 18m	96%	87%
United Details →	DEN 05:00 → IAH 08:32UA 320	3h 53m Houston	IAH 12:25 → AMA 14:21UA 4817 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 21m	99%	82%
United Details →	DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829	3h 30m Houston	IAH 20:34 → AMA 22:30UA 4839 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 00m	98%	81%
American Details →	DEN 06:34 → DFW 09:40AA 3285	3h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:22 → AMA 14:46AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	7h 12m	99%	79%
American Details →	DEN 09:04 → DFW 12:07AA 1523	2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:35 → AMA 15:59AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	5h 55m	94%	75%
American Details →	DEN 10:38 → DFW 13:40AA 1756	3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:17 → AMA 18:40AA 3789 · flown by Envoy	7h 02m	95%	71%
American Details →	DEN 16:23 → DFW 19:34AA 1832	3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:40 → AMA 00:07 +1AA 3990 · flown by Envoy	6h 44m	92%	69%
American Details →	DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21AA 420	3h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:16 → AMA 23:32AA 2265	7h 21m	95%	45%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 10:38 → DFW 13:40AA 1756	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:35 → AMA 15:59AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	4h 21m	72%	57%
American Details →	DEN 18:10 → DFW 21:18AA 1322	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:16 → AMA 23:32AA 2265	4h 22m	48%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON