Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 08:45, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 280 United Flight history →	DEN 18:58	ANC 22:27	42%	14%	0.7%	79%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 2 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 16:08 → MSP 19:15DL 2271	2h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411	10h 51m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26DL 1731	2h 09m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922	8h 47m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	DEN 11:59 → SEA 13:51AS 682	3h 00m Seattle	SEA 16:51 → ANC 19:30AS 85	9h 31m	97%	71%
Alaska Details →	DEN 08:45 → SEA 10:47AS 317	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 14:02 → ANC 16:32AS 1381	9h 47m	100%	70%
Delta Details →	DEN 13:03 → SEA 15:05DL 1358	2h 25m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → ANC 20:14DL 2367	9h 11m	97%	69%
American Details →	DEN 09:04 → DFW 12:07AA 1523	3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:08 → ANC 19:09AA 399	12h 05m	94%	67%
Alaska Details →	DEN 17:57 → SEA 19:48AS 615	3h 04m Seattle	SEA 22:52 → ANC 01:25 +1AS 703	9h 28m	98%	64%
American Details →	DEN 10:39 → ORD 14:18AA 2559	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 17:03 → ANC 21:09AA 375	12h 30m	100%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DEN 17:57 → SEA 19:48AS 615	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 21:01 → ANC 23:33AS 711	7h 36m	66%	45%
American Details →	DEN 12:37 → ORD 16:14AA 2363	49m Chicago	ORD 17:03 → ANC 21:09AA 375	10h 32m	56%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON