Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5444 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 5444 DEN 07:46 → ASE 08:47 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 5697 DEN 16:22 → ASE 17:26 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5444 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:46	ASE 08:47	12%	6%	2.2%	86%
UA 5782 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:33	ASE 10:31	23%	9%	2.5%	80%
UA 5769 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:18	ASE 12:26	24%	13%	2.9%	74%
UA 5771 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:40	ASE 14:44	25%	14%	3.7%	73%
UA 5781 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:25	ASE 21:26	28%	13%	4.2%	78%
UA 5775 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:25	ASE 18:29	30%	15%	3.3%	72%
UA 5779 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:10	ASE 20:11	32%	13%	4.1%	68%
UA 5697 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 16:22	ASE 17:26	32%	17%	4.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON