Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 341 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–47%.

Safest bet that day DL 341 DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1450 DEN 19:17 → ATL 00:27 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 341 Delta Flight history →	DEN 05:45	ATL 10:44	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 431 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:15	ATL 12:11	9%	3%	0.6%	93%
WN 468 Southwest	DEN 07:32	ATL 12:40	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2806 United	DEN 10:11	ATL 15:23	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 346 Delta Flight history →	DEN 10:52	ATL 15:52	18%	4%	0.7%	80%
WN 4978 Southwest	DEN 10:40	ATL 15:48	21%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 995 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:07	ATL 17:07	22%	6%	0.7%	86%
F9 3600 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:58	ATL 15:08	26%	7%	0.7%	75%
DL 706 Delta Flight history →	DEN 14:10	ATL 19:16	27%	10%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
DL 957 Delta Flight history →	DEN 15:10	ATL 20:22	28%	11%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
UA 1671 United Flight history →	DEN 13:26	ATL 18:30	30%	10%	0.7%	79%
DL 840 Delta Flight history →	DEN 16:35	ATL 21:49	35%	13%	0.8%	82%worse than usual
UA 248 United	DEN 18:08	ATL 23:14	41%	17%	0.7%	no record
WN 1700 Southwest	DEN 18:50	ATL 23:56	46%	18%	0.7%	no record
F9 1450 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 19:17	ATL 00:27	47%	21%	0.9%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON