tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 2089 at 17:44, with a 39% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2089 United DEN 17:44 ATW 21:04 39% 15% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 08:00 → ORD 11:43UA 2430 2h 12m Chicago ORD 13:55 → ATW 15:09UA 4479 · flown by GoJet 6h 09m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:05 → DTW 10:54DL 1745 2h 04m Detroit DTW 12:58 → ATW 13:25DL 4696 · flown by Endeavor 6h 20m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023 3h 14m Chicago ORD 22:00 → ATW 23:23UA 4495 · flown by GoJet 7h 22m 93% 75%
DeltaDetails → DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 21:16 → ATW 22:31DL 2945 7h 21m 94% 72%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377 3h 03m Chicago ORD 12:45 → ATW 14:05UA 4475 · flown by GoJet 7h 05m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → DEN 14:59 → DTW 19:49DL 1648 1h 20m Detroit DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest 5h 38m 81% 64%
DeltaDetails → DEN 16:08 → MSP 19:15DL 2271 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 21:45 → ATW 22:58DL 4920 · flown by Endeavor 5h 50m 97% 60%
AmericanDetails → DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21AA 420 1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:07 → ATW 22:41AA 4188 · flown by Envoy 6h 30m 81% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DEN 15:10 → ATL 20:22DL 957 54m Atlanta ATL 21:16 → ATW 22:31DL 2945 6h 21m 67% 52%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617 54m Chicago ORD 17:59 → ATW 19:04UA 5987 · flown by SkyWest 4h 39m 46% 19%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON