Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4833 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 4833 DEN 06:15 → AUS 09:31 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 859 DEN 17:40 → AUS 20:53 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4833 Southwest	DEN 06:15	AUS 09:31	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1536 Southwest	DEN 07:29	AUS 10:45	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 456 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	AUS 11:15	9%	3%	0.6%	95%
UA 1026 United Flight history →	DEN 10:05	AUS 13:20	17%	5%	0.6%	82%
WN 1489 Southwest	DEN 10:26	AUS 13:41	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3876 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:30	AUS 12:45	18%	5%	0.6%	85%
WN 1538 Southwest	DEN 11:56	AUS 15:12	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 8167 United	DEN 13:49	AUS 17:14	26%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 1899 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	AUS 18:48	32%	16%	0.7%	78%worse than usual
WN 3965 Southwest	DEN 14:01	AUS 17:15	34%	9%	0.6%	no record
DL 3669 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:30	AUS 22:51	34%	15%	0.9%	70%
UA 1943 United Flight history →	DEN 20:27	AUS 23:44	38%	15%	0.8%	67%
UA 1942 United Flight history →	DEN 18:39	AUS 21:57	39%	18%	0.8%	75%worse than usual
F9 1816 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:11	AUS 19:27	40%	14%	1.0%	80%worse than usual
WN 2695 Southwest	DEN 21:55	AUS 01:10	40%	12%	0.8%	no record
WN 2215 Southwest	DEN 19:00	AUS 22:14	46%	16%	0.8%	no record
WN 859 Southwest	DEN 17:40	AUS 20:53	48%	16%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON