Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 1992 at 09:39, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1992 United	DEN 09:39	AVL 14:36	16%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → AVL 13:25DL 1182	5h 40m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099	5h 25m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:35 → LGA 13:19DL 398	3h 19m New York	LGA 16:38 → AVL 18:35DL 4665 · flown by Endeavor	9h 00m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	7h 36m	99%	71%
American Details →	DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573	2h 33m Charlotte	CLT 14:37 → AVL 15:35AA 5588 · flown by PSA	6h 54m	97%	70%
Delta Details →	DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 19:37 → AVL 20:41DL 3071	7h 49m	99%	67%
American Details →	DEN 06:34 → DFW 09:40AA 3285	3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:49 → AVL 16:17AA 569	7h 43m	99%	57%
American Details →	DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21AA 420	1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:54 → AVL 23:27AA 3267	6h 16m	78%	40%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 14:18 → CLT 19:29AA 1662	1h 21m Charlotte	CLT 20:50 → AVL 21:45AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	5h 27m	66%	46%
Delta Details →	DEN 16:35 → ATL 21:49DL 840	57m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	5h 11m	64%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON