Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 4762 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 4762 DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:36 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 1417 DEN 19:40 → BIL 21:17 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4762 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:55	BIL 09:36	13%	4%	1.4%	87%
UA 703 United Flight history →	DEN 11:45	BIL 13:22	19%	8%	0.7%	80%
UA 5845 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:45	BIL 15:29	22%	10%	1.0%	83%
UA 5498 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:35	BIL 17:19	27%	13%	1.2%	77%
UA 5257 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:10	BIL 22:54	32%	12%	2.2%	80%worse than usual
UA 1417 United Flight history →	DEN 19:40	BIL 21:17	42%	17%	1.2%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON