Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1543 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 1543 DEN 05:05 → BNA 08:41 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4888 DEN 17:10 → BNA 20:44 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1543 Southwest	DEN 05:05	BNA 08:41	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2322 Southwest	DEN 07:35	BNA 11:11	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 605 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	BNA 11:42	9%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 355 United Flight history →	DEN 09:32	BNA 13:08	15%	4%	0.6%	83%
WN 1545 Southwest	DEN 11:53	BNA 15:29	24%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 1402 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:33	BNA 14:15	26%	8%	0.7%	81%
UA 1109 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	BNA 17:34	27%	9%	0.6%	72%
UA 1287 United	DEN 20:31	BNA 00:08	30%	14%	0.7%	no record
WN 2922 Southwest	DEN 20:26	BNA 00:00	36%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 1140 Southwest	DEN 15:15	BNA 18:51	37%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 1300 United Flight history →	DEN 17:30	BNA 21:13	41%	18%	0.7%	74%worse than usual
WN 4888 Southwest	DEN 17:10	BNA 20:44	47%	15%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON