Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2284 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–46%.

Safest bet that day WN 2284 DEN 08:35 → BOI 10:38 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4421 DEN 21:59 → BOI 23:59 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2284 Southwest	DEN 08:35	BOI 10:38	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 255 United	DEN 07:37	BOI 09:40	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2255 United Flight history →	DEN 11:36	BOI 13:35	17%	5%	0.6%	82%
UA 5923 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:25	BOI 22:37	24%	11%	0.8%	71%
UA 2602 United Flight history →	DEN 15:55	BOI 17:56	32%	12%	0.6%	67%
WN 1551 Southwest	DEN 15:45	BOI 17:48	35%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 2014 United Flight history →	DEN 19:28	BOI 21:29	40%	14%	0.7%	73%worse than usual
WN 4421 Southwest	DEN 21:59	BOI 23:59	46%	12%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON