Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 558 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–52%.

Safest bet that day UA 558 DEN 07:45 → BOS 13:49 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1375 DEN 17:01 → BOS 22:52 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 558 United Flight history →	DEN 07:45	BOS 13:49	9%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 1232 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	BOS 15:44	16%	6%	0.6%	86%
DL 499 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:33	BOS 17:35	23%	8%	0.6%	75%
WN 3559 Southwest	DEN 10:25	BOS 16:17	29%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 597 United Flight history →	DEN 14:06	BOS 20:10	30%	14%	0.6%	71%
B6 394 JetBlue Flight history →	DEN 12:41	BOS 18:37	34%	13%	0.7%	68%
UA 1912 United	DEN 15:42	BOS 21:31	39%	15%	0.6%	no record
UA 1356 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	BOS 23:44	40%	16%	0.7%	73%worse than usual
WN 1555 Southwest	DEN 18:51	BOS 00:42	50%	13%	0.7%	no record
WN 1375 Southwest	DEN 17:01	BOS 22:52	52%	14%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON