tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 37–46% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1162 Southwest DEN 13:15 BUF 18:22 37% 9% 0.6% no record
UA 731 United DEN 17:30 BUF 22:35 46% 15% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 08:47 → MSP 11:45DL 2877 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749 7h 37m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → DEN 07:35 → LGA 13:19DL 398 2h 56m New York LGA 16:15 → BUF 17:44DL 5792 · flown by Republic 8h 09m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → DEN 14:59 → DTW 19:49DL 1648 3h 01m Detroit DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978 6h 59m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 8h 18m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:13 → IAD 11:41UA 1279 1h 18m Dulles IAD 12:59 → BUF 14:25UA 4335 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 12m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → DEN 13:13 → PHL 19:10AA 2491 3h 10m Philadelphia PHL 22:20 → BUF 23:53AA 5911 · flown by Piedmont 8h 40m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:35 → JFK 12:27DL 336 1h 02m New York JFK 13:29 → BUF 15:09DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 6h 34m 95% 74%
AmericanDetails → DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573 1h 01m Charlotte CLT 13:05 → BUF 14:54AA 2442 6h 13m 91% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617 52m Chicago ORD 17:57 → BUF 20:35UA 1335 5h 10m 42% 19%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON