Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1733 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–50%.

Safest bet that day WN 1733 DEN 08:35 → BUR 10:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1558 DEN 17:06 → BUR 18:38 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1733 Southwest	DEN 08:35	BUR 10:10	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2154 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	BUR 12:48	22%	7%	0.6%	85%
WN 1910 Southwest	DEN 13:10	BUR 14:46	33%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4390 Southwest	DEN 20:30	BUR 22:05	42%	14%	0.8%	no record
UA 2411 United Flight history →	DEN 19:13	BUR 20:43	46%	17%	0.8%	67%worse than usual
WN 1558 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:06	BUR 18:38	50%	15%	0.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON