Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 549 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–50%.

Safest bet that day WN 549 DEN 05:00 → BWI 10:32 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1564 DEN 18:53 → BWI 00:21 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 549 Southwest	DEN 05:00	BWI 10:32	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1669 Southwest	DEN 00:30	BWI 05:56	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 117 Southwest	DEN 07:20	BWI 12:51	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1362 United Flight history →	DEN 09:46	BWI 15:17	14%	4%	0.7%	89%
WN 761 Southwest	DEN 14:25	BWI 19:51	39%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 2843 United	DEN 18:05	BWI 23:30	42%	19%	0.8%	no record
WN 1564 Southwest	DEN 18:53	BWI 00:21	50%	15%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON