Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2742 at 10:02 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–46%.

Safest bet that day UA 2742 DEN 10:02 → CID 13:01 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2324 DEN 17:37 → CID 20:39 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2742 United	DEN 10:02	CID 13:01	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 5677 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:55	CID 17:01	30%	9%	1.3%	86%worse than usual
OO 6009 SkyWest	DEN 20:43	CID 23:47	31%	12%	1.4%	no record
UA 2324 United Flight history →	DEN 17:37	CID 20:39	46%	17%	1.1%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON