Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 480 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–50%.

Safest bet that day UA 480 DEN 09:35 → CMH 14:28 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2720 DEN 19:45 → CMH 00:30 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 480 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	CMH 14:28	12%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 1571 Southwest	DEN 10:25	CMH 15:12	21%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3446 Southwest	DEN 14:10	CMH 18:56	35%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 1843 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	CMH 22:37	42%	16%	0.6%	77%worse than usual
WN 2720 Southwest	DEN 19:45	CMH 00:30	50%	14%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON