Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 551 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 551 DEN 08:30 → COS 09:21 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3854 DEN 21:46 → COS 22:35 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 551 Southwest	DEN 08:30	COS 09:21	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 5246 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	COS 08:41	13%	5%	0.7%	85%
UA 5306 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:45	COS 10:46	16%	5%	0.7%	83%
OO 741 SkyWest	DEN 23:04	COS 23:54	17%	9%	1.2%	no record
UA 738 United	DEN 11:30	COS 12:19	23%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 4775 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:30	COS 14:27	29%	12%	0.7%	73%
WN 3247 Southwest	DEN 13:25	COS 14:14	33%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 5546 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:35	COS 16:32	35%	14%	0.9%	81%worse than usual
OO 306 SkyWest	DEN 21:08	COS 21:58	36%	14%	1.5%	no record
UA 5308 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 16:55	COS 17:52	37%	18%	1.1%	66%
OO 6082 SkyWest	DEN 18:57	COS 20:05	38%	17%	1.5%	no record
UA 5669 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:50	COS 20:46	40%	15%	1.3%	84%worse than usual
OO 5244 SkyWest	DEN 20:32	COS 21:22	40%	14%	1.4%	no record
UA 4793 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	COS 20:01	40%	15%	1.3%	74%worse than usual
UA 5861 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:55	COS 18:54	42%	16%	1.1%	68%
WN 3854 Southwest	DEN 21:46	COS 22:35	48%	14%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON