Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 5797 at 17:30, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5797 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:30	COU 20:39	35%	18%	1.3%	83%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbia is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:40 → COU 11:23AA 3416 · flown by Envoy	5h 23m	97%	80%
American Details →	DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21AA 420	2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → COU 22:20AA 4282 · flown by Envoy	6h 09m	88%	61%
American Details →	DEN 12:37 → ORD 16:14AA 2363	3h 16m Chicago	ORD 19:30 → COU 21:05AA 3696 · flown by Envoy	7h 28m	87%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 16:23 → DFW 19:34AA 1832	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → COU 22:20AA 4282 · flown by Envoy	4h 57m	53%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON