Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1388 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–52%.

Safest bet that day WN 1388 DEN 05:55 → DAL 08:56 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time Riskiest WN 2956 DEN 17:18 → DAL 20:12 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1388 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 05:55	DAL 08:56	3%	1%	0.7%	38%
WN 2464 Southwest	DEN 07:00	DAL 10:01	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3962 Southwest	DEN 08:00	DAL 11:00	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1326 Southwest	DEN 09:03	DAL 12:03	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 820 Southwest	DEN 10:53	DAL 14:01	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2399 Southwest	DEN 13:48	DAL 16:48	28%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3668 Southwest	DEN 15:07	DAL 18:07	37%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 1579 Southwest	DEN 21:05	DAL 00:03	38%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 1578 Southwest	DEN 19:09	DAL 22:09	49%	16%	0.9%	no record
WN 2956 Southwest	DEN 17:18	DAL 20:12	52%	13%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON