tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 2635 at 18:10, with a 37% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2635 United DEN 18:10 DAY 23:02 37% 16% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dayton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dayton is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 13:35 → DAY 15:04DL 2763 7h 19m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:13 → IAD 11:41UA 1279 1h 03m Dulles IAD 12:44 → DAY 14:18UA 4241 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 05m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101 3h 49m Dulles IAD 17:15 → DAY 19:01UA 4274 · flown by CommuteAir 9h 01m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 22:20 → DAY 23:51DL 3167 7h 41m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → DEN 00:05 → IAD 05:47UA 1924 2h 28m Dulles IAD 08:15 → DAY 09:48UA 4188 · flown by GoJet 7h 43m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → DEN 10:01 → CLT 15:12AA 3299 3h 43m Charlotte CLT 18:55 → DAY 20:37AA 5435 · flown by PSA 8h 36m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → DEN 07:22 → DFW 10:25AA 852 3h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:09 → DAY 17:35AA 5517 · flown by PSA 8h 13m 95% 72%
AmericanDetails → DEN 10:38 → DFW 13:40AA 1756 3h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:16 → DAY 20:48AA 5609 · flown by PSA 8h 10m 95% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DEN 14:18 → CLT 19:29AA 1662 1h 00m Charlotte CLT 20:29 → DAY 22:09AA 5174 · flown by PSA 5h 51m 62% 46%
UnitedDetails → DEN 16:48 → ORD 20:19UA 1131 1h 01m Chicago ORD 21:20 → DAY 23:49UA 4589 · flown by GoJet 5h 01m 46% 29%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617 46m Chicago ORD 17:51 → DAY 20:22UA 4484 · flown by GoJet 4h 57m 29% 16%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON